The regular season is great. But let’s not kid ourselves: in the end, you have to get yourself into the playoffs. This is where the magic happens. A year ago, the Braves lost Ronald Acuna Jr. to a season-ending knee injury and were in the middle of what looked like a desperate hustle on the trade deadline to collect something that looked like a major league pitch. Two and a half months later, they won the world championship. October is what it’s all about.
But you have to enter. No team grabbed a watershed spot, but using FanGraphs playoff oddsThere are four teams currently given 100% odds of making a post-season: the Yankees and Astros in the MLS, and the Dodgers and Mets in the National League. Which means there are eight locations open, by my estimation, for 14 teams: Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Giants, Guardians, Mariners, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rays, Red Sox, Twins, White Sox. (These are also all teams that FanGraphs have with qualifying odds better than 1 percent and less than 100.)
This means that six of these teams will not succeed. And a lot of these differences Really need to make the playoffs. And so, with two months remaining until the end of the season, we take a look at the Playoff Urgency Rankings, and assess how much these 14 teams need to achieve post-season this year. How will you break the hearts of fans? How disappointing will it be? Conversely, how much does that mean for them to get in? Here is the order of 14.
Odds of current matches: 83%
I mean, it has to be, right? Mariners have the longest dry spell in final matches in major professional sports in North America; The last time they reached was 2001, the season with 116 wins. Julio Rodriguez, their star, was not even a year old. Sailors sure know how important this year is, and it Why did they trade so much for right-handed Luis Castillo: It’s time to strike now. This is a big fan base for baseball worthy of baseball in October. They’re on their way to getting the AL Wild Card spot now. For their sake, and for the sake of those long-suffering fans, they have to hold on to it.
Odds of current matches: 92%
Can you imagine if the Padres had some kind of meltdown and missed the playoffs? Can you imagine? Well, it’s pretty hard to imagine, but it’s fair to say then All in Juan Soto and trading away from almost the top tier of their farm system, The Padres family has invested a lot. Do they have to win the world championship this year? With Soto on the list until at least 2024, they’ll get a few more pieces of apple. But the assumption is that they will be in October, with room to spare, all those three years. It is frankly difficult to understand what will happen if Padres fails this year. It is almost as hard to understand as it happens at all.
3. Blue Jays
Odds of current matches: 97%
Finally, you can make an argument that they belong to that first group of supposed playoff teams. They’re comfortable in the first AL Wild Card spot, and FanGraphs actually have more lock on than Padres. I’m not sure if, if only because of the number of other teams competing in the AL. There is no doubt, though, that they are in a good position, which is a good thing, because despite all the excitement about the young talent on this team and all the front office spending, they haven’t yet won a playoff. The game has been around since 2016, when Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion were their superstars. The division is out of reach, but they can host a playoff series if they play their cards right. They wouldn’t dare to miss another chance, would they?
Odds of current matches: 76%
Milwaukee was probably a little lower on this list before the trade deadline. But when you send an All-Star closer to you – and one of the most beloved players on the roster – in the middle of a Pennant chase, It’s better not to collapse on the stretch. One can understand Josh Hader’s trading argument while still understanding why fans of Brewers are so upset. Part of the Brewers’ mindset was that firing Hader would help them in the long run but not cost them a split in the short term. They better be right. Because if you’re not super careful, you may outgrow yourself.
Odds of current matches: 63%
Speaking of NL Central teams with two months ahead, the Cardinals will have to justify their reluctance to really participate in the Soto lottery. It’s out of character for this organization to supercharge their entire farm system the way A.J. Preller just did it; They don’t see anything like “windows” and think they have to compete every year. The thing about it is that you have to compete this is general. If you want to dispense with Soto, you better win now. This is especially true when you say goodbye to legends Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols at the end of the year. You don’t want to miss this goodbye. They need this division in every part as much as brewers need.
Odds of current matches: 66%
Depending on how close you are to the Giants team, you can prove that these three teams will go to two locations. The Phillies are fighting for the NL Wild Card spot that everyone who doesn’t win the Central is trying to get, and their deadline deals made it clear that Philly isn’t letting Bryce Harper’s absence void them of any hope. Harper’s absence – and the excuse he could theoretically make – is the only reason they are under the Cardinals and the Boers here, but given that they have secondly The longest dry interval in baseball (2011), you can put it on top of both.
7. White Sox
Odds of current matches: 55%
some from U.S Choose White Sox As the second best bet to win the world championship this year, which hasn’t aged very well. But the mentality was logical. This is a team with a lot of talent in its prime, an owner who wants to win now, a farm system that doesn’t produce a lot of future talent, a department that isn’t particularly intimidating and a manager who, well, probably won’t think about how his team will perform in 2030. That means: It’s time the time now. Despite their headaches this year, the White Sox are only three AL Wild Card games and at AL Central, which means everything they wanted from this season is still ahead of them. But if they fail this year… there will be a very huge reckoning on the south side.
Current playoff odds: 51%
Yes, FanGraphs has White Sox with better odds of twins despite outperforming Minnesota in the rankings, pointing to the fact that the twins have a much stricter remaining schedule, and presumably the White Sox has performed poorly thus far. The Twins have basically entered this season as if a disappointing 2021 was an anomaly, and so far, they’ve been proven right. They are in first place despite some issues with their staff, issues Try to process it by the deadline. Much of the urgency for 2022 comes from the fact that they will likely only have Carlos Correa for this season before he chooses; You better win when you get it.
Odds of current matches: 58%
One of Rays’ whole ways of working is that they’ve never done that very All in one season: They always make sure to think three or four years ahead. But there is no doubt that we are in a period of peak rays. They have a win percentage of 0.596 from the top three in a row, they won 100 games last year, and made the world championship two years ago. But this year it was more than a struggle. They still hold the AL Wild Card spot, but it feels a bit risky, and there’s a feeling that this Rays team is a notch or two lower than those in the past.
10. The Brave
Odds of current matches: 99%
Even with Acuña not looking quite like him since coming back from a knee injury that cost him most of last year and some of this year, it’s a solid wise that this Braves team is better than last year…you know, the team that won the World Championship. They are well positioned for qualifying, but if something along their stretch collapses and they somehow finish the race, Braves fans will be very upset and will have to take out DVDs of the 2021 World Series to make them feel better. It would be a huge step back to miss the playoffs. But they just won the World Championships and they seem close to locking in at least the NL Wild Card round.
11. Red Sox
Current playoff odds: 25%
First, they’re the Red Sox, so there’s always some urgency. However, the feelings have been off the Red Sox for a few months now, and you can tell the team to see how Relatively negative they were on the deadline. Sure, they kept JD Martinez and brought in Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer, but neither of them changed the rules of the game, and they basically got Hosmer for free anyway. They’re clearly still in the running – they’ve only made four AL Wild Card games out. But they’re also the last place team that barely crossed 0.500, and they don’t seem to have any illusions about it. They will accept a run late in the season if that happens. But they clearly don’t count on it.
Current playoff odds: 4%
The Giants barely cling to the NL Wild Card race, but they haven’t quite run, as you can tell by the fact that Carlos Rodón is still on the list. This team, as we remind you, won 107 games last year, and you never know when a team like this will run. But the fan base can still take solace in winning three World Championship titles not so long ago.
Current playoff odds: 3%
Of all the fun ways this season ends, Baltimore Playoffs will be one of the most entertaining. This team is an absolute blast now. It’s been especially fun to see them nearly win casually in a series against teams like Rangers, Angels and Cubs in recent weeks, treating them like speed bumps. even with All the excitementTeam Trades away from Trey Mancini and Jorge López on Deadline He still sees the real discord window a year or two from now. It’s reward time for all Orioles in 2022. In 2023? Then the temperature begins to rise.
Odds of current matches: 28%
Cleveland is only one AL Central game and two AL Wild Card games. But the club did not take a single step on the deadline other than to trade away Sandy Leon and bring down Franmel Reyes. They can still make the playoffs: They’re in pretty good shape, actually. But they also have gaps that they haven’t filled. Until they get another spot here.